BRAVES BREAKING NEWS: Latest free agent signings are scary signs for the starting pitching market… Read More below
The MLB offseason has begun in a disappointingly sluggish manner, with most of the league’s top free agents yet to sign contracts. Despite this slow start, the early moves in the starting pitching market indicate that it’s poised to be one of the most competitive and expensive offseasons in recent memory. Teams have already begun shelling out significant sums for pitchers, suggesting a trend that could make acquiring quality arms a costly endeavor for anyone looking to bolster their rotation.
The biggest splash so far has come from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who secured left-handed ace Blake Snell on a five-year, $182 million contract. This massive deal not only underscores Snell’s value but also reflects a major shift in how the market views elite starting pitchers. Just a year ago, Snell entered free agency as the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner but was unable to secure such a lucrative deal. The Dodgers’ willingness to invest heavily in Snell signals that teams are now more aggressive in their pursuit of top-tier arms, regardless of past hesitations. This sets a precedent that other franchises may need to follow if they want to remain competitive in the hunt for pitching talent.
This development has significant implications for teams like the Atlanta Braves, who are still holding out hope of re-signing their own star left-hander, Max Fried. Fried has been a cornerstone of the Braves’ rotation, known for his remarkable consistency and ability to perform in high-pressure situations. While Snell may have a slightly higher ceiling with his ability to dominate games, Fried’s steadiness over the past five years arguably makes him just as valuable. The Snell deal, however, has raised the bar for contracts, and the Braves may now face an uphill battle to retain Fried without breaking their usual financial discipline. His price tag, once considered steep but manageable, now seems poised to skyrocket as other teams recognize his reliability and leadership on the mound.
What’s particularly alarming for teams like the Braves is that the soaring prices aren’t limited to elite pitchers. Even mid-tier and injury-prone starters are commanding eye-popping deals. In a pair of surprising moves overnight, the Chicago Cubs signed Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million deal, while the New York Mets landed Frankie Montas for two years at $34 million. These signings raised eyebrows across the league, as both pitchers come with significant risks. Boyd has struggled with injuries for years, failing to pitch more than 80 innings in any season since 2019. Montas, on the other hand, is coming off a disastrous season in which he posted a 4.84 ERA and managed just one appearance in 2023 due to lingering health issues.
In previous years, pitchers like Boyd and Montas would have likely settled for one-year, low-risk contracts designed to prove their worth. Instead, both secured multi-year agreements averaging more than $14 million annually. This signals a shift in how teams are approaching free-agent pitching. Even players with uncertain health or inconsistent performances are being treated as premium commodities, driving up prices across the board. The implications of this trend are profound, as it creates a challenging environment for teams that prefer to spend cautiously or seek value signings.
The ripple effects of this overheated market are already becoming apparent. With mid-tier pitchers fetching significant contracts, the cost for proven arms and higher-upside players is likely to reach unprecedented levels. Established starters like Nathan Eovaldi and Walker Buehler, who bring a mix of track records and untapped potential, could be looking at deals that eclipse expectations. Even veteran pitchers like Charlie Morton, despite their advanced age or potential decline, may find themselves commanding one-year contracts worth $20 million or more.
For the Braves, this offseason could force them into uncharted territory. Historically, Atlanta has been conservative in its approach to free-agent spending, preferring to rely on internal development and shrewd trades rather than overpaying in the open market. However, the current landscape may leave them with no choice but to gamble. Whether it’s overpaying for a proven ace like Fried, taking a risk on a high-upside but injury-prone pitcher, or exploring untested options, the Braves will need to adapt their strategy if they want to shore up their rotation before the 2025 season.
This new reality underscores the difficult decisions that lie ahead for the Braves and other teams seeking pitching reinforcements. The market’s rapid escalation has created a situation where even acquiring average arms comes at a premium, let alone securing top-tier talent. Teams must weigh the risks of overpaying against the potential consequences of standing pat and falling behind in an increasingly competitive league. For Atlanta, this offseason could define the direction of their franchise for years to come, forcing them to navigate a delicate balance between maintaining financial prudence and staying competitive in a market that shows no signs of cooling down.
In the end, the MLB offseason is shaping up to be a litmus test for every team’s willingness to adapt and evolve in the face of a market that continues to challenge traditional expectations. Whether the Braves emerge as winners or are forced to settle for less, their actions over the next few months will undoubtedly have a lasting impact on their rotation and overall competitiveness.