Pete Alonso’s Free Agency: Contract Projections and Best Fits
Pete Alonso, a star known for his power and consistency, is one of the most intriguing free agents of the 2025 MLB offseason. Since his debut in 2019, only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs, and no one has driven in more runs. A four-time All-Star and two-time Home Run Derby champion, Alonso has built a reputation as a durable and energetic player.
However, his free agency journey has been slow due to concerns over his age (30), declining on-base percentages (.318 in 2023 and .329 in 2024), career-low slugging percentage in 2024 (.459), and lack of value in defense and baserunning. These factors make his market value and contract expectations uncertain.
Comparing Alonso to Other First Basemen
Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, initially sought a nine-figure deal, evidenced by Alonso turning down a seven-year, $158 million offer from the Mets in 2023. However, Alonso’s performance metrics lag behind other first basemen who signed $100+ million contracts.
Key comparisons:
– mAverage WAR (last two seasons before contracts):** Group average = 5.1; Alonso = 2.9
OPS+ (offensive performance metric): Group average = 148; Alonso = 123
These numbers show Alonso isn’t as productive as his high-priced peers, raising doubts about his worthiness of a long-term, high-value deal.
Risks of First Baseman Contracts
Historically, first basemen often decline rapidly due to their reliance on “old-player skills” like power and plate discipline, which diminish with age. Contracts for players like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera became burdensome for their teams due to steep declines in performance.
Of the 14 comparable contracts, only about half were deemed successful. Even with Alonso’s elite bat speed and consistent power (he averages 40 home runs per season), his limited all-around game heightens the risk of a long-term deal.
Potential Contract and Fits
Given the risks, a shorter-term deal seems more likely for Alonso, potentially resembling Cody Bellinger’s recent three-year, opt-out-heavy contract with the Cubs. Such a structure offers teams flexibility while allowing Alonso to re-enter the market if his performance improves.
Alonso’s power should translate well to various ballparks, making him appealing to teams seeking offensive firepower. While a return to the Mets remains a possibility, Alonso’s contract is expected to be a calculated bet rather than a long-term gamble.
