Tottenham’s survival bid: Predicted final table and how their run-in compares to Leeds United and Nottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur have unexpectedly been dragged into a tense relegation scrap as they prepare to usher in a new chapter under interim head coach Igor Tudor. The Croatian has been appointed until the end of the season following the dismissal of Thomas Frank, and his immediate objective is crystal clear: steer Spurs clear of the drop and stabilise a season that has spiralled alarmingly.
With just a handful of games remaining, Tottenham sit five points above West Ham United, who currently occupy the final relegation spot. However, the Hammers’ improved form has intensified the pressure, turning what once looked like a remote possibility into a genuine dogfight. The battle for survival is tightening, and momentum could prove decisive in the closing weeks.
The Current State of Play
As it stands, the relegation picture — excluding Wolverhampton Wanderers, who appear cut adrift — looks like this:
15th – Leeds United – 30 points (-9 GD)
16th – Tottenham Hotspur – 29 points (-1 GD)
17th – Nottingham Forest – 27 points (-13 GD)
18th – West Ham United – 24 points (-17 GD)
19th – Burnley – 18 points (-23 GD)
Tottenham’s superior goal difference compared to several rivals offers slight comfort, but their margin for error is slim. One poor run of results could quickly undo that cushion.
What the Predictions Say
According to OPTA’s simulation model, which ran thousands of projected outcomes, Spurs are still expected to survive. The projected final standings are:
15th – Leeds United – 44.71 points (3.74% relegation probability)
16th – Tottenham Hotspur – 44.51 points (3.67%)
17th – Nottingham Forest – 40.45 points (19.47%)
18th – West Ham United – 35.98 points (72.04%)
19th – Burnley – 20.41 points (98.56%)
The data suggests Tottenham are highly likely to avoid relegation, with less than a four percent chance of going down. Still, statistics offer no guarantees — particularly in a season where Spurs have struggled for consistency.
Comparing the Run-Ins
Tottenham’s remaining fixtures are a mixed bag. They still face heavyweights such as Arsenal, Liverpool, and Chelsea, but there are also winnable matches against teams around them.
Spurs’ remaining fixtures:
Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H).
By comparison, Leeds, Forest and West Ham also face daunting schedules, including multiple clashes with top-six opposition and several head-to-head relegation six-pointers that could swing the table dramatically.
Where Spurs Must Deliver
The magic survival mark is traditionally 40 points. Tottenham currently need around 11 points to reach that threshold — though realistically 12 would provide greater certainty.
Home games against Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Leeds United stand out as must-win encounters. Not only are those fixtures favourable on paper, but two involve direct relegation rivals, making them effectively double-value contests.
Beyond those, opportunities exist in away trips to Fulham and Sunderland, while Brighton and Everton at home are matches Spurs should feel capable of taking points from — even given their patchy form.
If Tottenham can collect maximum points from their key home fixtures alone, they would be within touching distance of safety. Add in a win or two elsewhere, and survival should be secured without late drama.
No Room for Excuses
On paper, Tottenham’s squad quality far outweighs their league position. Even in a turbulent season marked by inconsistency and managerial upheaval, they should have enough to collect between 12 and 18 points from their remaining matches.
The responsibility now falls on Igor Tudor to galvanise the dressing room, restore belief, and ensure Spurs avoid what would be one of the most shocking relegations in modern Premier League history. The numbers suggest survival is likely — but if they fail to capitalise on this relatively manageable run-in, serious questions will be asked about how a club of Tottenham’s stature allowed themselves to drift so dangerously close to the abyss.