Supercomputer changes Tottenham Champions League prediction after Monaco draw
Opta’s Supercomputer has updated its projection for Tottenham Hotspur’s Champions League campaign — and the numbers don’t paint a particularly optimistic picture for Thomas Frank’s side following their goalless draw against AS Monaco.
According to Opta’s latest data, Spurs’ performances this season have not been as convincing as their results might suggest. The underlying metrics reveal that Tottenham have been overperforming relative to their expected goals and overall play. That concern has been especially apparent in Europe, where their Champions League outings have lacked the sharpness and control expected from a side of their stature.
Their campaign began with a nervy 2-1 home win over Villarreal — a match in which Tottenham needed a late surge to secure all three points. The cracks widened further when they faced Norwegian champions Bodo/Glimt away from home, where they trailed 2-0 before staging a dramatic comeback to salvage a draw. However, their recent performance in Monaco might have been their most concerning yet.
Despite the 0-0 scoreline, Monaco dominated the match, producing an expected goals (xG) total of 2.68, while Tottenham goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario was forced into eight crucial saves to keep the hosts out. Without his heroics, Spurs would likely have suffered their first defeat of the group stage.
Opta’s latest prediction: Spurs slip further down the rankings
Before the matchday, Opta’s supercomputer had Tottenham projected to finish 11th in the overall Champions League standings. But after their underwhelming display at the Stade Louis II, the algorithm has revised its forecast — placing Spurs 12th, with a predicted total of 13.17 points.
That tally would still see the North London side advance beyond the group phase, but it suggests they’ll narrowly miss out on direct qualification to the round of 16. Essentially, they’re expected to progress to the knockout stages via a lower seeding, which could mean a tougher opponent in the next round.
However, the data also reveals an even more worrying reality when adjusting for expected points (xPts) based on xG performance. Tottenham currently rank 31st out of all Champions League teams in this metric — meaning only five clubs have underperformed more according to the underlying statistics. It’s a sign that their points haul doesn’t fully reflect the level of their play so far.
Spurs’ qualification chances — cautious optimism amid warning signs
Opta’s model currently gives Tottenham a 19.4% chance of finishing inside the top eight, which would grant them direct entry into the round of 16. While that figure is not particularly encouraging, Spurs still retain a 76.7% chance of ending within the top 24 — enough to ensure qualification for the knockout stage through the extended format of this year’s competition.
Even so, many Tottenham supporters may view Opta’s forecast as overly generous, especially when considering how the team has struggled for creativity and control under Thomas Frank in recent weeks. The North London outfit have been guilty of slow starts, disjointed midfield play, and defensive lapses that have left them relying heavily on Vicario’s reflexes and moments of individual brilliance to stay competitive.
In essence, while the numbers suggest Tottenham remain on course to reach the next phase, the underlying data — and indeed the performances themselves — raise serious questions about their long-term prospects in the competition. Unless Frank can rediscover the fluid, attacking football that defined Spurs earlier in the campaign, their Champions League journey could be shorter and far more turbulent than fans had hoped.