Supercomputer Predicts 2025-26 Champions League Winners Odds after exclusive simulation

The league phase of the 2025/26 Champions League has drawn to a dramatic close, and the final matchday delivered no shortage of headlines. The standout moment came in Lisbon, where Benfica goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin improbably grabbed the spotlight by scoring deep into stoppage time in the 98th minute, sealing a sensational 4-2 victory over Real Madrid and sending shockwaves across Europe.

With the league phase now complete, the competition begins to take its familiar knockout shape. Eight teams have already booked their place directly into the Round of 16, while another eight will emerge from a tense playoff round to complete the last-16 lineup. As excitement builds among the remaining 24 clubs still dreaming of lifting the famous trophy, Opta’s supercomputer has crunched the numbers, running 10,000 simulations to assess which sides are most likely to go all the way.

Paris Saint-Germain enter the tournament as defending champions, having claimed their first-ever Champions League title last June in emphatic fashion. Luis Enrique’s side dismantled Inter Milan 5-0 in the final, a performance that underlined their growing European pedigree. However, despite their status as holders, PSG are not Opta’s top pick to retain the crown. Instead, the data highlights a new set of favourites, along with a handful of long-shot outsiders who could still spring a surprise.

Early exits and unlikely contenders

Several heavyweight names did not even make the top 20 in Opta’s projections, having exited the competition at the earliest stage. Dutch giants Ajax, Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt, and Antonio Conte’s Napoli — led by Kevin De Bruyne — all failed to progress far enough to feature among the leading contenders, underlining just how unforgiving this revamped Champions League format has been.

 

Qarabag have been one of the feel-good stories of the season, reaching the playoffs despite suffering a heavy 6-0 defeat to Liverpool on the final matchday. While their journey has captured attention, Opta’s supercomputer suggests that a fairy-tale ending is beyond them.

AS Monaco are the first team on the list with a theoretical, albeit tiny, chance of lifting the trophy. The French side, managed by Sébastien Pocognoli, last reached the final back in 2004, losing 3-0 to Porto. This time around, they have been given just a 0.01% chance of glory in Budapest, narrowly behind Norwegian outfit Bodo/Glimt. known for stunning Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City with a 3-1 win earlier in the campaign, Bodo/Glimt are unlikely to repeat such heroics deep into the knockout rounds. Olympiacos complete this tier, with a slightly higher but still remote 0.13% chance of winning the competition.

Outside shots and surprise packages

Turkish giants Galatasaray sit marginally above Olympiacos with a 0.14% chance of lifting the trophy. Powered by the lethal Victor Osimhen, the Nigerian striker’s goals carried them to a 20th-place finish in the league phase and into the playoffs. While expectations remain modest, their attacking threat makes them a dangerous opponent.

Club Brugge have emerged as one of the surprise inclusions in this bracket. The Belgian side endured a brutal schedule, travelling to Atalanta, Bayern Munich and Sporting, while also hosting Monaco, Barcelona, Arsenal and Marseille. Despite the difficulty, they managed three wins and secured a playoff spot. Opta gives them a 0.18% chance of ultimate success, which would see them become Belgium’s first Champions League winners since their 1978 final defeat to Liverpool.

Atalanta follow with a 0.25% chance, reflecting their steady European presence in recent years, though their best run remains a quarter-final appearance in 2019/20. Bayer Leverkusen, who collected 12 points during the league phase, have struggled to hit top form consistently and are rated at 0.32%. Borussia Dortmund, finalists as recently as 2024 when they lost 2-0 to Real Madrid, are given a slightly better 0.51% chance of going one step further this time.

Proven pedigree and fading giants

Benfica scraped into the playoffs, but with José Mourinho in the dugout, European experience counts for plenty. The Portuguese giants are handed a 0.54% chance of securing their first continental crown since 1962, when they famously defeated Real Madrid, having beaten Barcelona the year before.

Juventus sit just above them in 14th, rated at 0.66%. The Italian giants faced a demanding set of fixtures, including away trips to Real Madrid and Monaco, and home clashes against Dortmund, Sporting and Benfica. Recent improvements in form suggest they could be a threat if momentum builds.

Atlético Madrid’s long wait for a first Champions League title looks set to continue, with Opta giving them just a 1.05% chance. Real Madrid, surprisingly, are not much higher at 1.88%. The departure of Xabi Alonso and the appointment of Álvaro Arbeola have unsettled the Spanish giants, and their struggles to replicate previous dominance are reflected in the numbers.

Tottenham Hotspur sit alongside Madrid in this bracket. Fresh off ending a 17-year trophy drought with last season’s Europa League triumph, Spurs have strengthened significantly in the summer. Their continental momentum earns them a 2.29% chance of winning the Champions League for the first time in their history.

 

Dark horses and elite challengers

Sporting CP have continued to punch above their weight in Europe despite losing key figures such as Ruben Amorim and Viktor Gyökeres in recent seasons. Five wins from eight league-phase matches secured them a top-eight finish, and Opta rates their chances at 2.31%.

Inter Milan, last season’s finalists, remain firmly in contention, while Newcastle United are handed a 3.19% chance — notably higher than several established European heavyweights — despite missing out on automatic qualification.

Defending champions PSG sit seventh in the rankings with a 5.10% probability. While their position may seem low, the depth and quality within Luis Enrique’s squad mean a repeat triumph cannot be ruled out. Barcelona, semi-finalists last season, narrowly miss out on the top five, with a 7.01% chance. With Lamine Yamal leading a vibrant young squad, the Catalans remain a serious threat.

The leading favourites

Chelsea round out the top five after building on last season’s Europa Conference League success and a Club World Cup triumph in the summer. Under Liam Rosenior, they are given a 7.54% chance of lifting the trophy, edging ahead of Liverpool.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool side, fresh from a Premier League title and boosted by the high-profile signings of Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, are rated at 8.95%. Their early exit last season has only fuelled belief that they are better equipped this time around.

Manchester City sit third as Pep Guardiola’s men chase their first Champions League crown since Istanbul, while Bayern Munich follow closely behind. Harry Kane’s goals and the emergence of teenage sensation Lennant Karl helped the German giants finish second in the league phase, making them formidable opponents.

At the summit, however, stand Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s side top Opta’s predictions, with a commanding 29.84% chance of winning the Champions League. The Gunners were flawless in the league phase, becoming just the 13th team in competition history to complete it with a perfect record. As they look to end a five-year wait for silverware, the data suggests this could finally be the season Arsenal conquer Europe.