Baseball Prospectus is widely recognized as one of the top three sources for prospect rankings, alongside MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. These outlets provide comprehensive assessments of baseball prospects, offering fans and analysts valuable insights into the players with the brightest futures in the game. While their evaluations are often respected, they aren’t always flawless, and discrepancies in rankings can spark debate. For New York Mets fans, the latest Baseball Prospectus rankings, released earlier this week, prompted a flurry of discussions regarding the future of their farm system heading into the 2025 season.
As expected, many of the Mets’ top prospects made the list. However, one notable omission that caught the attention of fans and analysts alike was outfielder Drew Gilbert. After entering the previous year ranked 29th overall in Baseball Prospectus’ rankings, Gilbert was conspicuously absent from the top 101 heading into 2025. His exclusion raised questions about why such a sharp decline occurred, especially considering the promise he had shown just a year earlier.
Jarrett Seidler, one of the authors behind the rankings, took to social media to explain the decision. He didn’t hold back in his assessment of Gilbert’s performance, pointing to his struggles during the 2024 season and his lackluster showing in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). Seidler’s blunt comments suggested that Gilbert’s performance did not meet expectations, despite the potential he had shown in previous years.
Seidler’s tweet read, “Gilbert is 24, stunk when he played, and stunk worse in the AFL against competition he should’ve dominated. There were a lot of tough calls but leaving him off wasn’t one of them.” These pointed remarks left little doubt about the reasoning behind Gilbert’s omission from the rankings, but they also underscored the high standards that prospects like Gilbert are held to in these evaluations.
The 2024 season was a challenging one for Gilbert, who struggled with injuries that limited him to just 56 games for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, the Syracuse Mets. His performance in those games—posting a .215/.313/.393 slash line with 10 home runs and 32 RBIs—was far below expectations. This marked a stark contrast to his breakout 2023 campaign, which came after his trade to the Mets. That season, Gilbert had been one of the standout performers in the minor leagues, following up a mediocre stint with the Houston Astros organization with a scorching finish in the Mets’ system. His 2023 performance—.325/.423/.561 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in just 111 plate appearances—had fans and analysts excited about his future.
However, the promise Gilbert showed in 2023 didn’t carry over into 2024. He spent much of the year battling injuries, and his struggles continued in the Arizona Fall League, a place where top prospects typically shine. In 92 plate appearances, Gilbert slashed .208/.380/.403, with four home runs and nine RBIs. While his walk rate (17) was higher than his strikeout rate (14), his overall performance fell short of expectations. Given that the AFL is a relatively low-pressure environment where players are expected to showcase their skills against a mix of rising prospects, Gilbert’s inability to dominate left many wondering about his potential moving forward.
Adding to his challenges, Gilbert’s 2024 season featured some rough stretches. In July, he struggled mightily, hitting just .147 and failing to record an extra-base hit in 34 at-bats. His performance showed marginal improvement in August, as his batting average climbed from .147 to .194. However, it wasn’t until September that he started to show signs of life, posting a .240/.341/.480 slash line with five home runs and 19 RBIs. While that late-season surge was encouraging, it wasn’t enough to offset his earlier struggles, and the momentum didn’t carry over into the AFL.
Seidler’s decision to leave Gilbert off the rankings wasn’t purely based on his age—Gilbert turned 24 in September 2024, which isn’t necessarily old for a prospect—but it was a factor in his evaluation. It’s important to note that Gilbert’s 2023 season was essentially his first full professional year, after having played just 11 games in the minors before that. The 2024 season, marred by injury and inconsistent performance, represented a missed opportunity for Gilbert to solidify his status as one of the top prospects in baseball.
As frustrating as Gilbert’s 2024 season was, it’s not yet time to give up on him. The next phase of his development will be crucial in determining whether he can rebound and realize his potential. How he responds in 2025 will be telling. If he can stay healthy and produce consistently at the plate, there is still time for him to reassert himself as a key part of the Mets’ future. On the other hand, if he continues to struggle, he risks fading into obscurity, a victim of unmet expectations and unrealized potential.
Ultimately, Drew Gilbert’s future with the Mets remains uncertain, but he still has time to prove himself. The 2025 season will be a make-or-break year for him. How he approaches the challenge, both physically and mentally, will play a significant role in deciding whether he remains a highly regarded prospect or becomes another name lost in the shuffle of forgotten talent.
